Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression

S Karlsson - Handbook of economic forecasting, 2013 - Elsevier
This chapter reviews Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting with VAR models.
Bayesian inference and, by extension, forecasting depends on numerical methods for …

Inference based on structural vector autoregressions identified with sign and zero restrictions: Theory and applications

JE Arias, JF Rubio‐Ramírez, DF Waggoner - Econometrica, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we develop algorithms to independently draw from a family of conjugate
posterior distributions over the structural parameterization when sign and zero restrictions …

[PDF][PDF] Bayesian econometrics

D Book, AR Hassan - 2021 - besmarter-team.org
In this course we perform an introduction to Bayesian methods, we show some basic
definitions and properties of the bayesian approach. We have taken the content from the …

Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series

LA Gil-Alana, PM Robinson - Journal of Econometrics, 1997 - Elsevier
Recently proposed tests for unit root and other nonstationarity of Robinson (1994a) are
applied to an extended version of the data set used by Nelson and Plosser (1982) …

[图书][B] Structural macroeconometrics

DN DeJong, C Dave - 2012 - degruyter.com
Structural Macroeconometrics provides a thorough overview and in-depth exploration of
methodologies, models, and techniques used to analyze forces shaping national …

Inference based on SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions: Theory and applications

J Arias, JF Rubio-Ramirez, DF Waggoner - 2014 - papers.ssrn.com
Are optimism shocks an important source of business cycle fluctuations? Are deficit-financed
tax cuts better than deficit-financed spending to increase output? These questions have …

Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?

JA Rosensweig, EW Tallman - Economic Inquiry, 1993 - Wiley Online Library
Since the mid 1980s, an extensive emprical literature has examined the relationship
between US Fiscal deficits, exchange rates, and trade balances. We investigate two …

What macroeconomists should know about unit roots: a Bayesian perspective

H Uhlig - Econometric Theory, 1994 - cambridge.org
This paper summarizes recent Bayesian research on unit roots for the applied
macroeconomist in the way Campbell and Perron [8] summarized the classical unit roots …

US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: A vector error correction model

KH Kim - Applied Economics, 1998 - Taylor & Francis
Many studies investigating the relation between inflation and exchange rates have found
that exchange rates influenced inflation, while other studies have failed to do so or reported …

On the shape of the likelihood/posterior in cointegration models

F Kleibergen, HK Van Dijk - Econometric theory, 1994 - cambridge.org
A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is specified with equation system parameters, which
directly reflect the possible cointegrating nature of the analyzed time series. By using a …