Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

M Oppenheimer, CM Little, RM Cooke - Nature climate change, 2016 - nature.com
Expert judgement is an unavoidable element of the process-based numerical models used
for climate change projections, and the statistical approaches used to characterize …

Making climate projections conditional on historical observations

A Ribes, S Qasmi, NP Gillett - Science Advances, 2021 - science.org
Many studies have sought to constrain climate projections based on recent observations.
Until recently, these constraints had limited impact, and projected warming ranges were …

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

CL Lei, S Ghosh, DG Whittaker… - … of the Royal …, 2020 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations
to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ …

[HTML][HTML] A representative democracy to reduce interdependency in a multimodel ensemble

BM Sanderson, R Knutti, P Caldwell - Journal of Climate, 2015 - journals.ametsoc.org
A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble in:
Journal of Climate Volume 28 Issue 13 (2015) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation …

[HTML][HTML] Attribution of extreme events in Arctic sea ice extent

MC Kirchmeier-Young, FW Zwiers… - Journal of Climate, 2017 - journals.ametsoc.org
Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent in: Journal of Climate Volume 30 Issue
2 (2017) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation Logo Logo Logo Logo Logo Logo …

Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

S Drijfhout, S Bathiany, C Beaulieu… - Proceedings of the …, 2015 - National Acad Sciences
Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events …

History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble

D Williamson, M Goldstein, L Allison, A Blaker… - Climate dynamics, 2013 - Springer
We apply an established statistical methodology called history matching to constrain the
parameter space of a coupled non-flux-adjusted climate model (the third Hadley Centre …

[HTML][HTML] Addressing interdependency in a multimodel ensemble by interpolation of model properties

BM Sanderson, R Knutti, P Caldwell - Journal of Climate, 2015 - journals.ametsoc.org
Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties
in: Journal of Climate Volume 28 Issue 13 (2015) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation …

Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling

B Swallow, P Birrell, J Blake, M Burgman, P Challenor… - Epidemics, 2022 - Elsevier
The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response
has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a …

[HTML][HTML] Comparing methods to constrain future European climate projections using a consistent framework

L Brunner, C McSweeney, AP Ballinger… - Journal of …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Political decisions, adaptation planning, and impact assessments need reliable estimates of
future climate change and related uncertainties. To provide these estimates, different …