We analyse whether estimated multiplier effects are systematically higher if the economy
suffers a downturn. For that purpose, we conduct a meta‐regression analysis on a unique …

The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate
change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current …

The euro area recently experienced a prolonged period of weak economic activity and very
low inflation. This paper reviews models of business cycle stabilization with an eye to …

This analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European
Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy …

The term “austerity” indicates a policy of sizeable reduction of govern-ment deficits and
stabilization of government debt achieved by means of spending cuts or tax increases, or …

The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces
operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how …

We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of
economic slack or when interest rates are near the zero lower bound. Using new quarterly …

Public capital can play an important role in increasing long-run output and standards of
living. Because of nonrivalry in consumption, non excludability in use, or both, the private …

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in
advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of …

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal
consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal …