Option return predictability with machine learning and big data

TG Bali, H Beckmeyer, M Moerke… - The Review of Financial …, 2023 - academic.oup.com
Drawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we find
that allowing for nonlinearities significantly increases the out-of-sample performance of …

Factor momentum in the Chinese stock market

T Ma, C Liao, F Jiang - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2024 - Elsevier
Based on 10 commonly used factors, we construct a novel factor momentum strategy in the
Chinese stock market, which earns an annualized return of 9.91%, with a Sharpe ratio of …

Are equity option returns abnormal? ipca says no

A Goyal, A Saretto - 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
We show that much of the profitability in equity option return strategies, which try to capture
option mispricing by taking exposure to underlying volatility, can be explained by an IPCA …

[PDF][PDF] Exploring the variance risk premium across assets

SL Heston, K Todorov - Unpublished working paper, 2023 - aeaweb.org
This paper explores the variance risk premium in option returns across twenty different
futures, including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities (energy, metals, and grains) …

Limits of Arbitrage and Primary Risk-Taking in Derivative Securities

M Tian, L Wu - The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2023 - academic.oup.com
Classic option pricing theory values a derivative contract via dynamic delta hedging and
treating the contract as redundant relative to the underlying security. Dynamic delta hedging …

[PDF][PDF] A new option momentum: Compensation for risk

H Beckmeyer, I Filippou, G Zhou - Available at SSRN, 2023 - algos.org
In this paper, we propose a cross-sectional option momentum strategy that is based on the
risk component of delta-hedged option returns. We find strong evidence of risk continuation …

[HTML][HTML] Macroeconomic momentum and cross-sectional equity market indices

Y Zhang, K Kappou, A Urquhart - Journal of International Financial Markets …, 2024 - Elsevier
Momentum is a well-known and studied artefact of financial markets. In this paper, we
investigate whether momentum in a country's macroeconomic variables is related to the …

Noisy market, machine learning and fundamental momentum

T Ma, H Sheng, Y Wang - Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2024 - Elsevier
We employ machine to learn the continuous fundamental information and elucidate the
fundamental momentum in the noisy Chinese stock market. We extract fundamental implied …

Common risk factors in cross-sectional FX options returns

X Zhang, RHY So, T Driouchi - Review of Finance, 2024 - academic.oup.com
We identify a comprehensive list of thirty-eight characteristics for predicting cross-sectional
FX options returns. We find that three factors—long-term straddle momentum, implied …

[图书][B] The cumulant risk premium

AS Kyle, K Todorov - 2023 - aeaweb.org
We develop a novel methodology to measure the risk premium of higher-order cumulants
(closely related to the moments of a distribution) based on assets satisfying a single-factor …