The model-free implied volatility and its information content

GJ Jiang, YS Tian - The Review of Financial Studies, 2005 - academic.oup.com
Abstract Britten-Jones and Neuberger (2000) derived a model-free implied volatility under
the diffusion assumption. In this article, we extend their model-free implied volatility to asset …

[HTML][HTML] Linear extrapolation and model-free option implied moments

G Lee, D Ryu - Borsa Istanbul Review, 2024 - Elsevier
This study proposes an approach for assessing the effectiveness of linear extrapolation (LE)
for the implied moment estimators even in cases in which the true values of implied …

Errors in implied volatility estimation

L Hentschel - Journal of Financial and Quantitative analysis, 2003 - cambridge.org
Estimating implied volatility by inverting the Black-Scholes formula is subject to considerable
error when option characteristics are observed with plausible errors. Especially for options …

On the role of risk premia in volatility forecasting

M Chernov - Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
I explain why at-the-money implied volatility is a biased and inefficient forecast of future
realized volatility using the insights from the empirical option-pricing literature. First, I explain …

The term structure of VIX

X Luo, JE Zhang - Journal of Futures Markets, 2012 - Wiley Online Library
In this study, we extend the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, VIX, from 30‐
day to any arbitrary time‐to‐maturity, and study the term structure of VIX. We propose new …

Volatility in the stock market: ANN versus parametric models

RL D'Ecclesia, D Clementi - Annals of Operations Research, 2021 - Springer
Forecasting and adequately measuring equity returns volatility is crucial for portfolio
selection and trading strategies. Implied volatility is often considered to be informationally …

The accuracy of density forecasts from foreign exchange options

P Christoffersen, S Mazzotta - Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2005 - academic.oup.com
Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when
making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this article is to …

Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?

CJ Neely - Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions …, 2009 - Elsevier
Research has consistently found that implied volatility is a conditionally biased predictor of
realized volatility across asset markets. This paper evaluates explanations for this bias in the …

Option-based forecasts of volatility: an empirical study in the DAX-index options market

S Muzzioli - The European Journal of Finance, 2010 - Taylor & Francis
Volatility estimation and forecasting are essential for both the pricing and the risk
management of derivative securities. Volatility forecasting methods can be divided into …

[PDF][PDF] 无模型隐含波动率及其所包含的信息基于恒生指数期权的经验分析

黄昔舟, 郑振龙 - 2009 - core.ac.uk
摘要根据无模型隐含波动率方法, 对香港恒生指数期权所含信息进行研究,
并通过使用无模型隐含波动率对期权市场的效率进行直接检验, 结果发现无模型隐含波动率所含 …