Sudden stratospheric warmings

MP Baldwin, B Ayarzagüena, T Birner… - Reviews of …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which
large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere (∼ 10–50 km) are …

Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States

J Cohen, L Agel, M Barlow, CI Garfinkel, I White - Science, 2021 - science.org
The Arctic is warming at a rate twice the global average and severe winter weather is
reported to be increasing across many heavily populated mid-latitude regions, but there is …

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

AA Scaife, MP Baldwin, AH Butler… - Atmospheric …, 2022 - acp.copernicus.org
Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of
stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere …

CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century

J Rao, CI Garfinkel - Environmental Research Letters, 2021 - iopscience.iop.org
Using state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5
and 6 (CMIP5/6), future changes of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events under a …

Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems

ZD Lawrence, M Abalos, B Ayarzagüena… - Weather and Climate …, 2022 - wcd.copernicus.org
The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of
several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric …

A QBO cookbook: Sensitivity of the quasi‐biennial oscillation to resolution, resolved waves, and parameterized gravity waves

CI Garfinkel, EP Gerber, O Shamir… - Journal of Advances …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
An intermediate complexity moist general circulation model is used to investigate the
sensitivity of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) to resolution, diffusion, tropical …

Development of the extratropical response to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

J Rao, CI Garfinkel, IP White - Journal of Climate, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
Using the Model of an Idealized Moist Atmosphere (MiMA) capable of spontaneously
generating a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the gradual establishment of the extratropical …

Impact of parameterized convection on the storm track and near-surface jet response to global warming: Implications for mechanisms of the future poleward shift

CI Garfinkel, B Keller, O Lachmy, I White… - Journal of …, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
While a poleward shift of the near-surface jet and storm track in response to increased
greenhouse gases appears to be robust, the magnitude of this change is uncertain and …

Ozone‐forced southern annular mode during Antarctic stratospheric warming events

M Jucker, R Goyal - Geophysical Research Letters, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract Southern Hemisphere (SH) Stratospheric Warming Events (SWEs) are usually
associated with a negative phase of the tropospheric Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during …

On the relative importance of stratospheric and tropospheric drivers for the North Atlantic jet response to sudden stratospheric warming events

H Afargan-Gerstman, B Jiménez-Esteve… - Journal of …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Roughly two-thirds of the observed sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are
followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet in the North Atlantic, while the other …