Statistical and computational methods are being increasingly integrated into Decision
Support Systems to aid management and help with strategic decisions. Researchers need to …

We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper
coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 …

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-
level investment. It is found that economic policy uncertainty in interaction with firm-level …

This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying
business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate …

The literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers
to convey uncertainty. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the uncertainty …

Using a standard decomposition of forecast errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks,
we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among …

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters:(1)
forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run;(2) the term structure of …

It gives me very great pleasure to open this conferenceto celebrate the ruby anniversary–
that is to say, the40th anniversary–of the Applied Economics journals. I am especially …

This paper examines matched point and density forecasts of inflation from the Survey of
Professional Forecasters to analyze the relationships among expected inflation …

We propose a Bayesian combination approach for multivariate predictive densities which
relies upon a distributional state space representation of the combination weights. Several …