A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science

AA Scaife, D Smith - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2018 - nature.com
We review the growing evidence for a widespread inconsistency between the low strength of
predictable signals in climate models and the relatively high level of agreement they exhibit …

The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences

GC Hegerl, S Brönnimann, A Schurer… - Wiley Interdisciplinary …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
The most pronounced warming in the historical global climate record prior to the recent
warming occurred over the first half of the 20th century and is known as the Early Twentieth …

Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional

NL Bindoff, PAA Stott, KM AchutaRao… - Climate change 2013 …, 2014 - hal.science
This chapter assesses the causes of observed changes assessed in Chapters 2 to 5 and
uses understanding of physical processes, climate models and statistical approaches. The …

[HTML][HTML] Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3. 2)

K Matthes, B Funke, ME Andersson… - Geoscientific Model …, 2017 - gmd.copernicus.org
This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights
changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely …

Causes of climate change over the historical record

GC Hegerl, S Brönnimann, T Cowan… - Environmental …, 2019 - iopscience.iop.org
This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial
period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external …

Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere

S Ineson, AA Scaife, JR Knight, JC Manners… - Nature …, 2011 - nature.com
An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth's surface climate has been repeatedly
suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables …

Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

I Ermolli, K Matthes, T Dudok de Wit… - Atmospheric …, 2013 - acp.copernicus.org
The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements
makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult …

The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather‐climate prediction problem: a stimulus for our science

B Hoskins - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological …, 2013 - Wiley Online Library
Predictability is considered in the context of the seamless weather‐climate prediction
problem, and the notion is developed that there can be predictive power on all time‐scales …

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

C Huntingford, T Marsh, AA Scaife, EJ Kendon… - Nature Climate …, 2014 - nature.com
Abstract During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall
events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure …

A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

LJ Gray, AA Scaife, DM Mitchell… - Journal of …, 2013 - Wiley Online Library
The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long‐
term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870 …