This study presents the results of an approach to the prediction of the outcomes of
geopolitical events, which we term the IDEA protocol. The participants investigate the …

Over the past few decades, machine learning has led to substantial changes in Data Fusion
Systems throughout the world. One of the most important application areas for data fusion is …

There are two types of artificial general intelligence (AGI) safety solutions: global and local.
Most previously suggested solutions are local: they explain how to align or “box” a specific …

Markets are a medium for information exchange between buyers and sellers. Prediction
markets exploit the information transmission property of markets to improve forecasts of …

Prediction markets produce crowdsourced probabilistic forecasts through a market
mechanism in which forecasters buy and sell securities that pay off when events occur …

This research presents the ongoing results of trading experiments that have been performed
on the DAGGRE prediction market. DAGGRE is a research project that aims to improve the …

We propose to improve the accuracy of prediction market forecasts by using Bayesian
networks to constrain probabilities among related questions. Prediction markets are already …

Prediction markets are markets that are set up to aggregate information from a population of
traders in order to predict the outcome of an event. In this thesis, we consider the problem of …

2. OBJECTIVES We hypothesize that measured accuracy will be greater for an incoherence-
penalized combinatorial prediction market (PPM) than for a fully combinatorial prediction …

A prediction market allows a group of traders to form a consensus probability distribution by
entering into agreements that pay off contingent on events of interest. A combinatorial …