This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive
economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying …

This paper aims to survey the existing literature, both theoretical and empirical, on the
relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. While there has been a wide …

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and
the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two …

This is the first paper in a series of two that synthesizes, compares, and extends methods for
causal inference with longitudinal panel data in a structural equation modeling (SEM) …

内容提要: 早在蒙代尔提出最优货币区理论之时, 他就指出了最优货币区的范围可以大于国界,
也可以在一国国界之内. 本文把常用于国际经济领域的最优货币区理论运用于我国这样一个大国 …

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions. Narrative sign
restrictions constrain the structural shocks and/or the historical decomposition around key …

We study people's subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their
attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic …

In this paper, we develop algorithms to independently draw from a family of conjugate
posterior distributions over the structural parameterization when sign and zero restrictions …

本文# 金融功能视角将影子银行体系的范畴界定在发挥了类似于商业银行存款贷款结算等功能
的三大类非银行金融机构在此前提下N 金融机构和金融产品视角重点剖析了前两类金融机构的 …

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on the supply of bank credit. Monetary policy
affects both loan supply and demand, thus making identification a steep challenge. We …