[HTML][HTML] Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

C Deser, F Lehner, KB Rodgers, T Ault… - Nature Climate …, 2020 - nature.com
Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate
change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections …

Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector–a review

LA Kautz, O Martius, S Pfahl, JG Pinto… - Weather and Climate …, 2021 - wcd.copernicus.org
The physical understanding and timely prediction of extreme weather events are of
enormous importance to society due to their associated impacts. In this article, we highlight …

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

M Rantanen, AY Karpechko, A Lipponen… - … earth & environment, 2022 - nature.com
In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the
world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic …

Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information

JY Lee, J Marotzke, G Bala, L Cao, S Corti… - Climate change 2021 …, 2021 - cambridge.org
This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons
from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to …

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

E Bevacqua, G Zappa, F Lehner… - Nature Climate Change, 2022 - nature.com
Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages
to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and …

Systematic climate model biases in the large‐scale patterns of recent sea‐surface temperature and sea‐level pressure change

RCJ Wills, Y Dong, C Proistosecu… - Geophysical …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a)
intensified warming in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern …

Understanding and managing connected extreme events

C Raymond, RM Horton, J Zscheischler… - Nature climate …, 2020 - nature.com
Extreme weather and climate events and their impacts can occur in complex combinations,
an interaction shaped by physical drivers and societal forces. In these situations …

[HTML][HTML] Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

KB Rodgers, SS Lee, N Rosenbloom… - Earth System …, 2021 - esd.copernicus.org
While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes,
understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on …

Framing, Context, and Methods (Chapter 1)

D Chen, M Rojas, BH Samset, K Cobb… - 2021 - pure.iiasa.ac.at
Working Group I (WGI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses
the current evidence on the physical science of climate change, evaluating knowledge …

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

GJ Van Oldenborgh, F Krikken, S Lewis… - … Hazards and Earth …, 2020 - nhess.copernicus.org
Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia,
raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic …