We propose a methodology exploiting time diary data and “leisure Engel curves” to infer
quality changes across leisure activities and measure the effects on the marginal return to …

According to Sheldon Danziger and David Ratner, changes in the labor market over the past
thirty-five years, such as labor-saving technological changes, increased globalization …

Why do more educated workers experience lower unemployment rates and lower
employment volatility? Empirically, these workers have similar job finding rates but much …

We introduce a survey‐based measure of uncertainty about future inflation, asking
consumers for density forecasts across inflation outcomes. Consumers are willing and able …

During the Great Recession, US regions that experienced large declines in household debt
also experienced large drops in consumption, employment, and wages. We develop a …

Modern business cycle theory focuses on the study of dynamic stochastic general
equilibrium (DSGE) models that generate aggregate fluctuations similar to those …

Throughout most of the twentieth century, economic growth was associated with rising
median real wages. However, since the early 1980s, measured median real hourly …

By the end of 2019, US output was 14% below the level predicted by its pre-2008 trend. To
understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the United States with demographics …

Low-skilled prime-age men are less likely to be employed than high-skilled prime-age men,
and the differential has increased since the 1970s. I build a search model encompassing …

Potential output is an important concept in economics. Policymakers often use a one-sector
neoclassical model to think about long-run growth, and they often assume that potential …