Key sources of disagreement among economic forecasters are identified by using data on
cross-sectional dispersion in forecasters' long-and short-run predictions of macroeconomic …

Using a standard decomposition of forecast errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks,
we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among …

Central banks have become remarkably more transparent over the last few decades. In this
paper, we study the effects of this evolution, focusing on whether enhanced central bank …

Forecast rationality under squared error loss implies various bounds on second moments of
the data across forecast horizons. For example, the mean squared forecast error should be …

Well-anchored inflation expectations are considered to be a reflection of credible monetary
policy. In the past, anchoring has typically been assessed using either long-run inflation …

Yes. This study produces evidence that monetary policy transparency and communication
policy of the Bank of England have information content in reducing disagreement about …

We propose a new measure of macroeconomic disagreement, using dispersions of
forecasts of a wide range of financial, activity and inflation variables from both household …

This study utilizes Chilean data for analyzing the factors that affect the expectations of
private forecasters (PFs), and, in particular, for determining whether they are influenced by …

Well anchored inflation expectations are considered to be a reflection of credible monetary
policy. In the past, anchoring has been assessed using either long-run inflation surveys or …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of
Fund Arrangements (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of …