We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale
randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The …

We study people's subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their
attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic …

In many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk
materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences …

Building on a textbook description of associative memory, we present a model of choice in
which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and …

We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing
important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by …

Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal
and monetary policy, as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a …

For many decisions, we encounter relevant information over the course of days, months or
years. We consume such information in various forms, including stories–qualitative content …

This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations into a general equilibrium macroeconomic
model with a financial intermediary sector. Diagnostic expectations are a forward-looking …

A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers'
forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic …

Information is often embedded in memorable contexts, which may cue the asymmetric recall
of similar past news through associative memory. We design a theory-driven experiment, in …