Although the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave has peaked with the second
wave underway, the world is still struggling to manage potential systemic risks and …

We propose a compartmental SIRD model with time-dependent parameters that can be
used to give epidemiological interpretations to the phenomenological parameters of the …

This paper introduces the Special Issue on Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Management.
It reviews the contributions and highlights their multi-disciplinary interpretations of cascades …

The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential.
Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days …

Assessing the transmission potential of emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, is
crucial for implementing prompt and effective intervention policies. The basic reproduction …

Purpose The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of the coronavirus disease
2019 (COVID-19) test on transmission data globally to reveal the fact that the actual picture …

We apply a versatile growth model, whose growth rate is given by a generalised beta
distribution, to describe the complex behaviour of the fatality curves of the COVID-19 …

Infectious disease outbreaks are expected to grow exponentially in time when left
unchecked. Containment measures such as lockdown and social distancing can drastically …

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented social and mobility
restrictions on a global scale. Since its start in the spring of 2020, numerous scientific papers …

Abstract 'Compartmental models' of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of
communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been …