This paper estimates regime-switching rules for monetary policy and tax policy over the post-
war period in the United States and imposes the estimated policy process on a calibrated …

This paper argues that the stock market crash of 2008, triggered by a collapse in house
prices, caused the Great Recession. The paper has three parts. First, it provides evidence of …

A central issue of monetary policy analysis is the specification of monetary policy shocks. In
a structural vector autoregressive setting there has been some controversy about which …

Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the
development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian …

We study the low frequency comovements in unemployment, inflation and the federal funds
rate in the US From 1970 through 1979 all three series trended up together; after 1979 they …

This chapter provides an interpretation of persistence in the unemployment rate that draws
from two central ideas in Keynes's General Theory (1936). The first is that any …

We study identification in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these
models are typically not identified. For any given exactly identified model, we provide an …

In most OECD countries, we cannot reject up to three breaks in the mean of inflation: one
break in the late 1960's-early 1970's, one in the early-mid 1980's and another break in the …

I have always found it useful to think of a modern free-enterprise economy as a human
anthill. Like an anthill, it organizes individuals' activities into patterns more complex than the …

DSGE models are characterized by the presence of expectations as explanatory variables.
To use these models for policy evaluation, the econometrician must estimate the parameters …