We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of US states using newly
constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates …

The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications
for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply‐and demand …

We review and assess the monetary policy framework currently used by the Federal
Reserve, with special focus on policies that operate through the slope of the term structure …

Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly
exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the …

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they
always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This …

We ask how fiscal deficits are financed in environments with two key features:(i) nominal
rigidity, and (ii) a violation of Ricardian equivalence due to finite lives or liquidity constraints …

Unconditional reduced form estimates of a conventional wage Phillips curve for the US
economy point to a decline in its slope coefficient in recent years, as well as a shrinking role …

We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroeconomic models,
knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contemporaneous and news shocks …

Evaluating the stability of the Phillips curve using aggregate data is challenging due to the
bias that endogenous monetary policy imparts on estimated Phillips curve coefficients. We …

We study the effects of supply disruptions-for instance due to energy price shocks or the
emergence of a pandemic-in an economy with Keynesian unemployment and endogenous …