Abstract World Health Organization (WHO) declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-
19), caused by the virus named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus-2 (SARS …

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasts from over 100 models are readily
available. However, little published information exists regarding the performance of their …

The number of new Covid-19 cases is still high in several countries, despite vaccination
efforts. A number of countries are experiencing new and severe waves of infection …

We apply fixed-b and fixed-m asymptotics to tests of equal predictive accuracy and of
encompassing for survey density forecasts. We verify in an original Monte Carlo design that …

This paper provides novel tests for comparing out-of-sample predictive ability of two or more
competing models that are possibly overlapping. The tests do not require pre-testing, they …

Projects such as the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub publish forecasts on the national
level for new deaths, new cases, and hospital admissions, but not direct measurements of …

The COVID-19 pandemic is perceived by many to have run its course, and forecasting its
progress is no longer a topic of much interest to policymakers and researchers as it once …

Risk assessment is the art and science of estimating risk based on the evidence which is
currently available. It seeks to characterize the state of knowledge and, to the extent …

This study conducts a postmortem analysis to evaluate the overall forecasting performance
of a large number of pandemic transmission models for COVID-19 mortality. For a …

We apply fixed-b and fixed-m asymptotics to tests of equal predictive accuracy and of
encompassing for density forecasts. We verify in an original Monte Carlo design that fixed …