The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the
specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running …

Background Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to
guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has …

Does more education lead to less political violence, and may education thus be a tool for
peace? This article provides the first systematic review of the existing quantitative literature …

Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although
each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors …

The most commonly used statistical models of civil war onset fail to correctly predict most
occurrences of this rare event in out-of-sample data. Statistical methods for the analysis of …

The Puzzle of Peace moves beyond defining peace as the absence of war and develops a
broader conceptualization and explanation for the increasing peacefulness of the …

A powerful and provocative exploration of how war has changed our society—for the better."
War!..../What is it good for?/Absolutely nothing," says the famous song—but archaeology …

This article provides a new methodology to predict armed conflict by using newspaper text.
Through machine learning, vast quantities of newspaper text are reduced to interpretable …

An award-winning military historian, professor, and political adviser delivers the definitive
story of warfare in all its guises and applications, showing what has driven and continues to …

This article presents ViEWS–a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be
maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the …