Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business
cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We …

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric
learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and …

Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers,
managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including …

The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt
on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have …

We show how real and financial frictions amplify, prolong, and propagate the negative
impact of uncertainty shocks. We use a novel instrumentation strategy to address …

This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying
business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate …

We investigate the role of uncertainty in business cycles. First, we demonstrate that
microeconomic uncertainty rises sharply during recessions, including during the Great …

We investigate, in a theoretical framework, the joint role played by investors' attention to
news and learning uncertainty in determining asset prices. The model provides two main …

The finance industry has grown, financial markets have become more liquid, information
technology has been revolutionized. But have financial market prices become more …

We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we
motivate the study of uncertainty shocks by documenting the presence of time-variation in …