[HTML][HTML] Exploring the watch-to-warning space: Experimental outlook performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather …

BT Gallo, KA Wilson, J Choate… - Weather and …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract During the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather
Testbed, two NWS forecasters issued experimental probabilistic forecasts of hail, tornadoes …

Valid time shifting for an experimental RRFS convection-allowing EnVar data assimilation and forecast system: Description and systematic evaluation in real time

NA Gasperoni, X Wang, Y Wang - Monthly Weather Review, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
This study describes a real-time implementation of valid time shifting (VTS) within the
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation–based ensemble-variational (EnVar) data assimilation …

Verification and Model Configuration Sensitivity of Simulated ABI Radiance Forecasts With the FV3‐LAM Model

A Johnson, X Wang, BT Blake, E Rogers… - Earth and Space …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
This study evaluates simulated radiance forecasts from a series of controlled experiments
consisting of FV3‐LAM forecasts with different configurations of model physics and vertical …

Generative ensemble deep learning severe weather prediction from a deterministic convection-allowing model

Y Sha, RA Sobash, DJ Gagne - Artificial Intelligence for the …, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
An ensemble postprocessing method is developed for the probabilistic prediction of severe
weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) …

Real-time short-range flood forecasting based on a watershed scale 2-D hydrodynamic model and High-Resolution precipitation forecast ensemble

GA Coelho, CM Ferreira, JL Kinter III, F Cassalho - Journal of Hydrology, 2024 - Elsevier
Urban flooding events caused by heavy and short-duration rainfall are challenging to predict
and can cause significant socioeconomic impacts. Forecast systems able to predict floods in …

[HTML][HTML] Assessment of the data assimilation framework for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System v0. 1 and impacts on forecasts of a convective storm case study

IH Banos, WD Mayfield, G Ge… - Geoscientific Model …, 2022 - gmd.copernicus.org
Abstract The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is currently under development and
aims to replace the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational suite …

Just what is “good”? Musings on hail forecast verification through evaluation of FV3-HAILCAST hail forecasts

RD Adams-Selin, C Kalb, T Jensen… - Weather and …, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
Hail forecasts produced by the CAM-HAILCAST pseudo-Lagrangian hail size forecasting
model were evaluated during the 2019, 2020, and 2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed …

On the fidelity of high-resolution numerical weather forecasts of contrail-favorable conditions

G Thompson, C Scholzen, S O'Donoghue… - Atmospheric …, 2024 - Elsevier
The potential climate-warming impact from aircraft contrails may be similar in magnitude to
the direct effect from carbon dioxide emissions across all aviation. The warming impact may …

WoFS and the Wisdom of the Crowd: The Impact of the Warn-on-Forecast System on Hourly Forecasts during the 2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring …

BT Gallo, AJ Clark, I Jirak, D Imy… - Weather and …, 2024 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract During the 2021 Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE), the usefulness of the
experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) ensemble guidance was tested with the …

Cool-season evaluation of FV3-LAM-based CONUS-scale forecasts with physics configurations of experimental RRFS ensembles

TA Supinie, J Park, N Snook, XM Hu… - Monthly Weather …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
To help inform physics configuration decisions and help design and optimize a multi-physics
Rapid Refresh Forecasting System (RRFS) ensemble to be used operationally by the …