Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model

H Alkhayuon, P Ashwin, LC Jackson… - … of the Royal …, 2019 - royalsocietypublishing.org
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of
heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate …

No evidence for critical slowing down prior to human epileptic seizures

T Wilkat, T Rings, K Lehnertz - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of …, 2019 - pubs.aip.org
There is an ongoing debate whether generic early warning signals for critical transitions
exist that can be applied across diverse systems. The human epileptic brain is often …

Tipping phenomena in typical dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift

B Kaszás, U Feudel, T Tél - Scientific reports, 2019 - nature.com
Tipping phenomena, ie dramatic changes in the possible long-term performance of
deterministic systems subjected to parameter drift, are of current interest but have not yet …

Rate-dependent tipping-delay phenomenon in a thermoacoustic system with colored noise

XY Zhang, Y Xu, Q Liu, J Kurths - Science China Technological Sciences, 2020 - Springer
Tipping is a phenomenon in multistable systems where small changes in inputs cause huge
changes in outputs. When the parameter varies within a certain time scale, the rate will affect …

Rate-induced tipping from periodic attractors: Partial tipping and connecting orbits

HM Alkhayuon, P Ashwin - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of …, 2018 - pubs.aip.org
We consider how breakdown of the quasistatic approximation for attractors can lead to rate-
induced tipping, where a qualitative change in tracking/tipping behaviour of trajectories can …

Robustness of early warning signals for catastrophic and non‐catastrophic transitions

PS Dutta, Y Sharma, KC Abbott - Oikos, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
Early warning signals (EWS) are statistical indicators that a rapid regime shift may be
forthcoming. Their development has given ecologists hope of predicting rapid regime shifts …

Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping

Y Huang, S Bathiany, P Ashwin, N Boers - Nature Machine Intelligence, 2024 - nature.com
Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing values can exhibit catastrophic
transitions between distinct states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down can help …

Bifurcation dodge: avoidance of a thermoacoustic instability under transient operation

G Bonciolini, N Noiray - Nonlinear dynamics, 2019 - Springer
Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical
transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited …

Experiments and modelling of rate-dependent transition delay in a stochastic subcritical bifurcation

G Bonciolini, D Ebi, E Boujo… - Royal Society open …, 2018 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters
varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature …

Rate-induced tipping to metastable zombie fires

E O'Sullivan, K Mulchrone… - Proceedings of the …, 2023 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Zombie fires in peatlands disappear from the surface, smoulder underground during the
winter, and 'come back to life'in the spring. They can release hundreds of megatonnes of …