We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations
and future inflation. We find that the expectations of professional economists and of …

Abstract Theory and extant empirical evidence suggest that the cross-sectional asymmetry
across disaggregated price indexes might be useful in forecasting aggregate inflation …

Abstract “Core” PCE inflation—that is, inflation in PCE-ex-food-and-energy—is widely used
as an estimate of trend inflation. But it is long overdue for replacement. The original rationale …

We introduce two new measures of trend inflation, a median PCE inflation rate and a median
PCE excluding OER inflation rate, and investigate their performance. Our analysis indicates …

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of
underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts …

Cognitive reflection is defined as the tendency to detect and check intuitive errors and has
been found to predict forecast accuracy in a range of domains. The current research …

The origins of the Great Inflation, a central 20th-century US macroeconomic event, remain
contested. Prominent explanations are poor inflation forecasts or inaccurate output gap …

We estimate a monetary policy rule for the US allowing for possible frequency dependence-
ie, allowing the central bank to respond differently to more persistent innovations than to …

I introduce the “trimmed persistence PCE,” a new measure of core inflation in which
component prices are weighted according to the time-varying persistence of their price …

Since mid-2014, the long-run inflation expectations of consumers have been declining.
Many commentators blame the decline on gasoline prices, which have also been falling …