[HTML][HTML] Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain
Wind power forecasting has supported operational decision-making for power system and
electricity markets for 30 years. Efforts of improving the accuracy and/or certainty of …
electricity markets for 30 years. Efforts of improving the accuracy and/or certainty of …
Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties,
and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude …
and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude …
Boosting: Empowering citizens with behavioral science
Behavioral public policy came to the fore with the introduction of nudging, which aims to
steer behavior while maintaining freedom of choice. Responding to critiques of nudging (eg …
steer behavior while maintaining freedom of choice. Responding to critiques of nudging (eg …
Introduction to the special issue on “25 years of ensemble forecasting”
R Buizza - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Twenty‐five years ago the first operational, ensemble forecasts were issued by the
European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for …
European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for …
A two‐step machine‐learning approach to statistical post‐processing of weather forecasts for power generation
By the end of 2021, the renewable energy share of the global electricity capacity reached
38.3% and the new installations were dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global …
38.3% and the new installations were dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global …
[HTML][HTML] From research to applications–examples of operational ensemble post-processing in France using machine learning
M Taillardat, O Mestre - Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2020 - npg.copernicus.org
Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts, from simple linear regressions to more
sophisticated techniques, is now a well-known procedure for correcting biased and poorly …
sophisticated techniques, is now a well-known procedure for correcting biased and poorly …
Visualizing uncertainty for non-expert end users: The challenge of the deterministic construal error
S Joslyn, S Savelli - Frontiers in Computer Science, 2021 - frontiersin.org
There is a growing body of evidence that numerical uncertainty expressions can be used by
non-experts to improve decision quality. Moreover, there is some evidence that similar …
non-experts to improve decision quality. Moreover, there is some evidence that similar …
High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding
Despite considerable advances in flood forecasting during recent decades, state-of-the-art,
operational flood early warning systems (FEWS) need to be equipped with near-real-time …
operational flood early warning systems (FEWS) need to be equipped with near-real-time …
Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop
The unprecedented progress in ensemble hydro‐meteorological modelling and forecasting
on a range of temporal and spatial scales, raises a variety of new challenges which formed …
on a range of temporal and spatial scales, raises a variety of new challenges which formed …
Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon? Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England
L Arnal, L Anspoks, S Manson… - Geoscience …, 2019 - gc.copernicus.org
The inclusion of uncertainty in flood forecasts is a recent, important yet challenging
endeavour. In the chaotic and far from certain world we live in, probabilistic estimates of …
endeavour. In the chaotic and far from certain world we live in, probabilistic estimates of …