This article argues that an important, yet overlooked, determinant of the government
spending multiplier is the direction of the fiscal intervention. Regardless of whether we …

Previous research has shown that the labor market experiences of less advantaged groups
are more cyclically sensitive than the labor market experiences of more advantaged groups; …

This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate
of unemployment, u*. The first approach uses detailed labor market indicators such as labor …

We construct a generalized measure of labor market tightness based on the ratio of
vacancies to effective searchers. Our generalized measure exhibits substantially less …

We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape
labor force participation, ie, the participation cycle, which are important for the …

Dynamic factor models have been the main “big data” tool used by empirical
macroeconomists during the last 30 years. In this context, Kalman filter and smoothing (KFS) …

Dynamic factor models provide a useful way to model large sets of time series. These data
often have heterogeneity and cluster structure and the formulation and estimation of …

This survey looks at the literature on factor extraction in the context of Dynamic Factor
Models (DFMs) fitted to multivariate systems of economic and financial variables. Many of …

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are
frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates …

We estimate trends in the labor force participation (LFP) and unemployment rates for
demographic groups differentiated by age, gender, and education, using a parsimonious …