The participation of financial actors is a key design issue in all emissions allowance markets.
Although financials perform several necessary market functions, excessive speculation may …

We study a newly designed survey administered to a large panel of wealthy retail investors.
The survey elicits beliefs that are important for macroeconomics and finance, and matches …

I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a
macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized …

When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and
sometimes too little. In this paper, we show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or …

We define a sentiment indicator based on option prices, valuation ratios, and interest rates.
The indicator can be interpreted as a lower bound on the expected growth in fundamentals …

The bulk of cash is held for store of value purposes, with such holdings sharply increasing in
times of high economic uncertainty and only a fraction of the population choosing to hoard …

In this paper, we develop a novel estimation for expected stock returns combining forward-
looking information implied by real-time asset prices and backward-looking information …

We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market
returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and …

ABSTRACT Using 14,800 forecasts of one-year S&P 500 returns made by Chief Financial
Officers over a 12-year period, we track the individual executives who provide multiple …

We test whether the market has intertemporally consistent expectations about the log equity
premium. We use option prices to estimate the expected future equity premium (the forward …