Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity
depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States …

Standard exchange rate models perform poorly in out-of-sample forecasting when
compared to the random walk model. We posit part of the poor performance of these models …

A preface is supposed to tell the reader why a book was written and what it is about. The
“why” in this case is not so easy to answer, however. Cognitive psychologists say that many …

This study examines the influence of 9/11, the Iraq War, the economy, and the coalition-of-
minorities on presidential approval of GW Bush across partisan subgroups and aggregate …

A Economia Política e, em particular, a literatura dos Ciclos Político Económicos debruçam-
se sobre a análise da inter-relação entre os sectores político e económico. A ideia …

Subject of this book is the intersection between political science and macroeconomics. The
central idea is the existence of a political economic equilibrium in which the government acts …

The empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus
inconclusive. This is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies …

In this paper we develop a voter model which builds on the partisan theory of
macroeconomic policy. In the voter model, vote decisions are based on the economic …

Analyses of presidential votes generally differ from that of presidential popularity concerning
the key economic variables that influence citizen opinions. Vote research usually …

Rational partisan theory of political business cycles suggests differences in inflation under
left-wing and right-wing governments. It also suggests temporary post-electoral booms after …