Tail risk premia and return predictability

T Bollerslev, V Todorov, L Xu - Journal of Financial Economics, 2015 - Elsevier
The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between the actual and risk-neutral
expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns …

The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series

H Han, O Linton, T Oka, YJ Whang - Journal of Econometrics, 2016 - Elsevier
This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between
two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional …

[图书][B] Heavy-tailed time series

R Kulik, P Soulier - 2020 - Springer
This book is concerned with extreme value theory for stochastic processes whose finite-
dimensional distributions are heavy-tailed in the restrictive sense of regular variation. These …

[图书][B] Time series clustering and classification

EA Maharaj, P D'Urso, J Caiado - 2019 - taylorfrancis.com
The beginning of the age of artificial intelligence and machine learning has created new
challenges and opportunities for data analysts, statisticians, mathematicians …

A survey of probabilistic timing analysis techniques for real-time systems

RI Davis, L Cucu-Grosjean - LITES: Leibniz Transactions on …, 2019 - eprints.whiterose.ac.uk
This survey covers probabilistic timing analysis techniques for real-time systems. It reviews
and critiques the key results in the field from its origins in 2000 to the latest research …

Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables

J Baruník, T Kley - The Econometrics Journal, 2019 - academic.oup.com
In this paper, we introduce quantile coherency to measure general dependence structures
emerging in the joint distribution in the frequency domain and argue that this type of …

Evolution of the information transmission between Chinese and international oil markets: a quantile-based framework

K Duan, X Ren, F Wen, J Chen - Journal of Commodity Markets, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper investigates the evolution of the information transmission between Chinese and
international crude oil markets from the perspective of return and volatility spillovers through …

A modeler's guide to extreme value software

LR Belzile, C Dutang, PJ Northrop, T Opitz - Extremes, 2023 - Springer
This review paper surveys recent development in software implementations for extreme
value analyses since the publication of Stephenson and Gilleland (Extremes 8: 87–109,) …

An empirical review of dynamic extreme value models for forecasting value at risk, expected shortfall and expectile

C Candia, R Herrera - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2024 - Elsevier
This work provides a selective review of the most recent dynamic models based on extreme
value theory, in terms of their ability to forecast financial losses through different risk …

Jump tails, extreme dependencies, and the distribution of stock returns

T Bollerslev, V Todorov, SZ Li - Journal of Econometrics, 2013 - Elsevier
We provide a new framework for estimating the systematic and idiosyncratic jump tail risks in
financial asset prices. Our estimates are based on in-fill asymptotics for directly identifying …