Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

EJ Kendon, EM Fischer, CJ Short - Nature Communications, 2023 - nature.com
Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally
through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient …

Challenges and outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling

EJ Kendon, AF Prein, CA Senior… - … Transactions of the …, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Climate projections at very high resolution (kilometre-scale grid spacing) are becoming
affordable. These 'convection-permitting'models (CPMs), commonly used for weather …

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

HJ Fowler, H Ali, RP Allan, N Ban… - … of the Royal …, 2021 - royalsocietypublishing.org
A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall
extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for …

Internal variability plays a dominant role in global climate projections of temperature and precipitation extremes

ML Blanusa, CJ López-Zurita, S Rasp - Climate Dynamics, 2023 - Springer
Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario
uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty …

[HTML][HTML] Climate scenarios for Switzerland CH2018–approach and implications

AM Fischer, KM Strassmann, M Croci-Maspoli… - Climate Services, 2022 - Elsevier
To make sound decisions in the face of climate change, government agencies, policymakers
and private stakeholders require suitable climate information on local to regional scales. In …

[HTML][HTML] Projected increase in windstorm severity and contribution from sting jets over the UK and Ireland

C Manning, EJ Kendon, HJ Fowler… - Weather and Climate …, 2023 - Elsevier
Extratropical windstorms can lead to extreme impacts in the UK; however, future changes in
windstorm frequency and intensity are uncertain due to natural variability and lack of model …

[PDF][PDF] Knmi national climate scenarios 2023 for The Netherlands

R Van Dorland, J Beersma, J Bessembinder… - Scientific …, 2023 - edepot.wur.nl
This is the scientific report, which supports the Dutch 'gebruikersrapport'with more
background information on methods, results, and evaluation of the KNMI'23 national climate …

Changing spatial structure of summer heavy rainfall, using convection‐permitting ensemble

Y Chen, A Paschalis, E Kendon… - Geophysical Research …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Subdaily rainfall extremes have been found to intensify, both from observations and climate
model simulations, but much uncertainty remains regarding future changes in the spatial …

Non-hydrostatic Regcm4 (RegCM4-NH): Evaluation of precipitation statistics at the convection-permitting scale over different domains

P Stocchi, E Pichelli, JA Torres Alavez, E Coppola… - Atmosphere, 2022 - mdpi.com
Recent studies over different geographical regions of the world have proven that regional
climate models at the convection-permitting scale (CPMs) improve the simulation of …

[HTML][HTML] Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales

HC Bloomfield, J Hillier, A Griffin, AL Kay… - Weather and Climate …, 2023 - Elsevier
The risk posed by heavy rain and strong wind is now suspected to be exacerbated by the
way they co-occur, yet this remains insufficiently understood to effectively plan and mitigate …