This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the
relationship between domestic (ie, country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and …

We review the literature on the empirical characteristics of the global financial cycle and
associated stylized facts on international capital flows, asset prices, risk aversion, and …

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This article summarises the academic contributions presented and discussed during the
2016 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meetings, which focused on …

Economic uncertainty is a driver of the business cycle. Its leading properties make it a key
advanced indicator to assess the impact of socioeconomic factors on suicide for prevention …

Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to supply chain
disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks …

The complex nature of stock market volatility has motivated researchers to apply a variety of
predictors to obtain reliable predictive information for precise forecasting. This study seeks to …

A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive
orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied …

We estimate a monthly interacted‐VAR model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates
allowing for the impact of uncertainty shocks to depend on the state of the average outlook …

External financial frictions might increase the severity of economic uncertainty shocks. We
analyze the impact of aggregate uncertainty and financial condition shocks using a …