[HTML][HTML] Forecasting: theory and practice

F Petropoulos, D Apiletti, V Assimakopoulos… - International Journal of …, 2022 - Elsevier
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty

S Bekiros, R Gupta, A Paccagnini - Economics Letters, 2015 - Elsevier
Abstract Information on economic policy uncertainty does matter in predicting the change in
oil prices. We compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian and time-varying VAR …

Financial frictions in the Euro Area and the United States: a Bayesian assessment

S Villa - Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2016 - cambridge.org
This paper assesses the empirical relevance of financial frictions in the Euro Area (EA) and
the United States (US). It provides a comprehensive set of comparisons between two …

Money and monetary policy in the Eurozone: an empirical analysis during crises

J Benchimol, A Fourçans - Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2017 - cambridge.org
This paper analyzes the role of money and monetary policy as well as the forecasting
performance of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with and …

Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty

M Segnon, R Gupta, S Bekiros… - Journal of …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
A large number of models have been developed in the literature to analyze and forecast
changes in output dynamics. The objective of this paper was to compare the predictive …

Forecast heuristics, consumer expectations, and New-Keynesian macroeconomics: A Horse race

TS Jang, S Sacht - Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021 - Elsevier
This study extends the hybrid version of the baseline New-Keynesian model with
heterogeneous agents who may adopt various forecast heuristics. With a focus on consumer …

The informational content of the term spread in forecasting the us inflation rate: a nonlinear approach

V Plakandaras, P Gogas, T Papadimitriou… - Journal of …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
The difficulty in modelling inflation and the significance in discovering the underlying data‐
generating process of inflation is expressed in an extensive literature regarding inflation …

Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-vars

S Bekiros, R Cardani, A Paccagnini, S Villa - Journal of financial stability, 2016 - Elsevier
In the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) literature there has been an
increasing awareness on the role that the banking sector can play in macroeconomic …

Limited asset market participation and the Euro area crisis: An empirical DSGE model

A Albonico, A Paccagnini, P Tirelli - Economic Inquiry, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
We estimate a medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Euro
area with limited asset market participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that in the recent …

Estimating a DSGE model with Limited Asset Market Participation for the Euro Area

A Albonico, A Paccagnini, P Tirelli - University of Milan Bicocca …, 2014 - papers.ssrn.com
We estimate a medium scale DSGE model for the Euro Area to gain intuition on the
importance of Limited Asset Market Participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that LAMP is …