The significance of uncertainty in policies related to economic decisions is higher than ever
before in today's interconnected world. This study contributes to existing research by …

The events that occurred after the worldwide diffusion of COVID‐19 provide a real‐life
example of how uncertainty can severely affect the global economy. This paper reviews …

We adapt simple tools from computational linguistics to construct a new measure of political
risk faced by individual US firms: the share of their quarterly earnings conference calls that …

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China's
exchange rate volatility from December 2001 to November 2018. Using the quantile …

We develop the hypothesis that geopolitical risk predicts exchange rate returns. Using data
on 17 countries, we demonstrate that the information content embedded in geopolitical risk …

This paper develops a revealed preference theory for the equity premium around
macroeconomic announcements. Stock returns realized around pre‐scheduled …

Using a classical gravity model, this paper examines the effects of geopolitical risks on the
trade flows, among 164 developing and developed countries, for the period of 1985–2013 …

We propose a text‐based method for measuring the cross‐border propagation of large
shocks at the firm level. We apply this method to estimate the expected costs, benefits, and …

Forecasting complex time series faces a huge challenge due to its high volatility. To improve
the accuracy and robustness of prediction, this paper proposes a bi‐level ensemble learning …

Uncertainty about future policy rates plays a crucial role for the transmission of monetary
policy to financial markets. We demonstrate this using event studies of FOMC …