Local projections for applied economics

Ò Jordà - Annual Review of Economics, 2023 - annualreviews.org
The dynamic causal effect of an intervention on an outcome is of paramount interest to
applied macro-and microeconomics research. However, this question has been generally …

The slope of the Phillips Curve: evidence from US states

J Hazell, J Herreno, E Nakamura… - The Quarterly Journal …, 2022 - academic.oup.com
We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of US states using newly
constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates …

The unequal economic consequences of carbon pricing

DR Känzig - 2023 - nber.org
This paper studies the economic impacts of carbon pricing. Exploiting institutional features of
the European carbon market and high-frequency data, I document that a tighter carbon …

[HTML][HTML] Local projections vs. vars: Lessons from thousands of dgps

D Li, M Plagborg-Møller, CK Wolf - Journal of Econometrics, 2024 - Elsevier
We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR)
estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes …

Credit allocation and macroeconomic fluctuations

K Müller, E Verner - Review of Economic Studies, 2024 - academic.oup.com
We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and
financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 …

The global dollar cycle

M Obstfeld, H Zhou - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2022 - muse.jhu.edu
The US dollar's nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions,
which themselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and …

Repercussions of the Russia–Ukraine war

E Tong - International Review of Economics & Finance, 2024 - Elsevier
Using the heteroscedasticity-based estimator of Rigobon and Sack (2005) to identify daily
shocks of the Russia–Ukraine war, I assess and quantify the dynamic impact of the conflict …

[HTML][HTML] The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices

SB Aruoba, T Drechsel - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024 - Elsevier
We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption
Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy …

Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe's Carbon Pricing Initiatives

DR Känzig, M Konradt - 2023 - nber.org
This paper investigates the impact of carbon pricing on the economy, with a focus on
European carbon taxes and the carbon market. Our analysis reveals three key findings. First …

Bias in local projections

EP Herbst, BK Johannsen - Journal of Econometrics, 2024 - Elsevier
Local projections (LPs) are a popular tool in macroeconomic research. We show that LPs
are often used with very small samples in the time dimension and, consequently, that LP …