This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive
economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying …

Fiscal stimuli to recover? A cascade of academic and layman articles debate the
effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating the economy backed up by different economic …

We develop a simple quantitative New Keynesian model aimed at accounting for the recent
sudden and persistent rise in inflation, with emphasis on the role of oil shocks and …

The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt
on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have …

Using household survey data for the US and the UK, we show that the aggregate response
of consumption to interest rate changes is driven by households with a mortgage. Outright …

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We
distinguish between changes in personal and corporate income taxes and develop a new …

Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the
unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment …

We show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the
simulation of a multi-year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks. Simulation of …

We attempt to replicate 67 papers published in 13 well-regarded economics journals using
author-provided replication files that include both data and code. Some journals in our …

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent
driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of …