To conduct monetary policy, central banks around the world increasingly rely on measures
of public inflation expectations. In this article, we review findings from an ongoing initiative at …

We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper
coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 …

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-
level investment. It is found that economic policy uncertainty in interaction with firm-level …

This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying
business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate …

We propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. The indices measure how
unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is relative to the …

How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that individuals
overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes. This approach modifies existing …

The literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers
to convey uncertainty. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the uncertainty …

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters:(1)
forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run;(2) the term structure of …

The social cost of carbon is the expected present value of damages from emitting one ton of
carbon today. We use perturbation theory to derive an approximate tractable expression for …

It gives me very great pleasure to open this conferenceto celebrate the ruby anniversary–
that is to say, the40th anniversary–of the Applied Economics journals. I am especially …