Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they
believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it …

Metacognition refers to thinking about our own thinking. It has assumed a prominent role in
social judgment because our thoughts about our thoughts can magnify, attenuate, or even …

After learning an event's outcome, people's recollection of their former prediction of that
event typically shifts toward the actual outcome. Erdfelder and Buchner (Journal of …

Thirty‐five years since the publication of Fischhoff's (1975) seminal article, we continue to be
fascinated by the hindsight bias. Like a well‐developed character in a novel, the bias has …

Early theories of surprise, including Darwin's, argued that it was predominantly a basic
emotion. Recently, theories have taken a more cognitive view of surprise, casting it as a …

Failure carries undeniable stigma and is difficult to confront for individuals, teams, and
organizations. Disciplines such as commercial and military aviation, medicine, and business …

Since Baruch Fischhoff's (1975) groundbreaking paper opened up a whole new research
field, more than 150 journal articles and book chapters, two meta–analyses (Christensen …

Investors need not be rational for markets to be efficient. The axiom of efficient market
hypothesis that it is not possible to earn excess profits because the available information …

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reduced list price Diagnoses the ills of the intelligence community. Describes the potential …

Work on future thinking suggests that people use what they know about the world (eg,
contents of memory) to make predictions about events to come, which reflects an adaptive …