We use a methodological framework exploiting the power of large ensembles to evaluate
how well ten coupled climate models represent the internal variability and response to …

Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging
from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm …

A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-
ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse …

Over time scales between 10 days and 10–20 years—the macroweather regime—
atmospheric fields, including the temperature, respect statistical scale symmetries, such as …

Five initialization and ensemble generation methods are investigated with respect to their
impact on the prediction skill of the German decadal prediction system “Mittelfristige …

Many atmospheric fields—in particular the temperature—respect statistical symmetries that
characterize the macroweather regime, ie time-scales between the ≈≈ 10 day lifetime of …

Near-term climate predictions such as decadal climate forecasts are increasingly being used
to guide adaptation measures. For near-term probabilistic predictions to be useful …

The popular probability integral transform (PIT) uniform plot presents informative empirical
illustrations of five types of ensemble forecasts, that is, reliable, under‐confident, over …

A new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation
capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX …

On ensemble‐based coupled data assimilation, cross‐component parameter estimation
(CPE), has not been as extensively developed and applied as weakly coupled state and …