Time series forecasting with the CIR# model: from hectic markets sentiments to regular seasonal tourism

G Orlando, M Bufalo - Technological and Economic …, 2023 - journals.vilniustech.lt
This research aims to propose the so-called CIR#, which takes its cue from the well-known
Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model originally devised for pricing, as a general econometric …

Forecasting interest rates through Vasicek and CIR models: A partitioning approach

G Orlando, RM Mininni, M Bufalo - Journal of Forecasting, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology that allows forecasting, through
Vasicek and CIR models, of future expected interest rates based on rolling windows from …

Interest rates calibration with a CIR model

G Orlando, RM Mininni, M Bufalo - The Journal of Risk Finance, 2019 - emerald.com
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to model interest rates from observed financial market
data through a new approach to the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model. This model is popular …

Interest rates forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#—How to make a single‐factor model work

G Orlando, M Bufalo - Journal of Forecasting, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
In this work, we present our findings of the so‐called CIR#, which is a modified version of the
Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR) model, turned into a forecasting tool for any term structure …

A new approach to forecast market interest rates through the CIR model

G Orlando, RM Mininni, M Bufalo - Studies in Economics and Finance, 2020 - emerald.com
Purpose The purpose of this study is to suggest a new framework that we call the CIR#,
which allows forecasting interest rates from observed financial market data even when rates …

[HTML][HTML] Equilibrium investment strategy for a defined contribution pension plan under stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility

L Zhang, D Li, Y Lai - Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 2020 - Elsevier
This paper aims to find the equilibrium investment strategy for a defined contribution pension
plan under the mean–variance criterion where both the interest rate and volatility are …

[HTML][HTML] Mixed fractional Heston model and the pricing of American options

F Mehrdoust, AR Najafi, S Fallah, O Samimi - Journal of Computational and …, 2018 - Elsevier
This paper presents a fractional version of the Heston model in which the volatility Brownian
and price Brownian are replaced by mixed fractional Brownian motions with Hurst parameter …

On the ergodicity of a three-factor CIR model

G Ascione, M Bufalo, G Orlando - arXiv preprint arXiv:2307.11443, 2023 - arxiv.org
This work illustrates a tri-factor model referred to as the $ CIR^ 3$ model, where both the
trend and the volatility are stochastic and correlated. For the said model we prove that a …

Credit default swap spreads modeling and forecasting with a stochastic square-root three-factor model

G Ascione, M Bufalo, G Orlando - Journal of Computational and Applied …, 2024 - Elsevier
In this study, we consider the CIR 3 model, a three-factor stochastic model with correlated
trends and volatilities for modeling and forecasting credit default swap (CDS) spreads. After …

[图书][B] A new approach to CIR short-term rates modelling

G Orlando, RM Mininni, M Bufalo - 2018 - Springer
It is well known that the CIR model, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the
current market environment with negative short rates, r (t). Moreover, in the CIR model, the …