This chapter explores the topic of imprecise probabilities (IP) as it relates to model
validation. IP is a family of formal methods that aim to provide a better representation of …

Social decisions in risky contexts raise a number of difficult questions, such as:(1) Should
social decisions be more or less risk averse than the average person?(2) Should we try to …

After an introductory section, this article will focus on four questions: How should the Kyoto
School be defined? What is meant by its central philosophical concept of “absolute …

We report an experiment where each subject's ambiguity sensitivity is measured by an
ambiguity premium, a concept analogous to and comparable with a risk premium. In our …

We demonstrate how the standard usage of the random incentive system in ambiguity
experiments eliciting certainty and probability equivalents might not be incentive compatible …

Bayesian decision theory was invented by Leonard Savage, who is on record as saying that
it would be “preposterous” and “utterly ridiculous” to apply his theory except in a small world …

The literature on decision biases in the newsvendor model assumes classical version of the
problem where the distribution of random demand is known. This context is decision-making …

We ran experiments that gave subjects a straight-forward and simple opportunity to hedge
away ambiguity in an Ellsberg-style experiment. Subjects had to make bets on the combined …

There is currently much discussion about how decision making should proceed when an
agent's degrees of belief are imprecise; represented by a set of probability functions. I show …

Suppose we take a standard, randomly shuffled pack of cards with no jokers, and ask what
the probability is that the top card is a red picture card. We can calculate the probability of …