Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific oscillation

R Ding, YH Tseng, E Di Lorenzo, L Shi, J Li… - Nature …, 2022 - nature.com
Abstract Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts
worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting …

El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition

H Chen, Y Jin, X Shen, X Lin, R Hu - npj Climate and Atmospheric …, 2023 - nature.com
Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in predictability on springtime
initial condition remains unclear. From the perspective of the spring predictability barrier …

Subseasonal predictability of the north Atlantic oscillation

JR Albers, M Newman - Environmental Research Letters, 2021 - iopscience.iop.org
Abstract Skillfully predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the closely related
northern annular mode (NAM), on'subseasonal'(weeks to less than a season) timescales is …

Two types of ENSO varying in tandem facilitated by nonlinear atmospheric convection

T Geng, W Cai, L Wu - Geophysical Research Letters, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has two distinct regimes, one in the
eastern Pacific (EP) featuring strong El Niño and the other in the central Pacific (CP) …

Improving statistical prediction and revealing nonlinearity of ENSO using observations of ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific

A Seleznev, D Mukhin - Climate Dynamics, 2023 - Springer
It is well-known that the upper ocean heat content (OHC) variability in the tropical Pacific
contains valuable information about dynamics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here …

Impact of annual cycle on ENSO variability and predictability

SI Shin, PD Sardeshmukh, M Newman… - Journal of …, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
Low-order linear inverse models (LIMs) have been shown to be competitive with
comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean models at reproducing many aspects of tropical …

A priori identification of skillful extratropical subseasonal forecasts

JR Albers, M Newman - Geophysical Research Letters, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
The current generation of subseasonal operational model forecasts has, on average, low
skill for leads beyond 3 weeks. This is likely a fundamental property of the climate system …

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

F Hassanibesheli, N Boers, J Kurths - New journal of physics, 2020 - iopscience.iop.org
Modeling complex systems with large numbers of degrees of freedom has become a grand
challenge over the past decades. In many situations, only a few variables are actually …

The influence of the trend, basin interactions, and ocean dynamics on tropical ocean prediction

MA Alexander, SI Shin… - Geophysical Research …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
The trend, connections between tropical ocean basins and dynamical processes on sea
surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) forecast skill are investigated using …

Extreme coastal El Niño events are tightly linked to the development of the Pacific Meridional Modes

C Martinez-Villalobos, B Dewitte… - npj Climate and …, 2024 - nature.com
Abstract Coastal El Niño events—marine heatwaves instances in the far eastern Tropical
Pacific during otherwise basin-scale neutral or cold conditions—can have severe societal …