This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive
economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying …

The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt
on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have …

This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying
business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate …

This paper proposes and implements a novel structural VAR approach to the identification of
news shocks about future technology. The news shock is identified as the shock orthogonal …

This article explores the effect of news shocks in open economies using worldwide giant oil
and gas discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output …

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent
driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of …

Considering the frequency of uncertainty shocks, this study examines various uncertainties
across countries. Recent literature shows conflicting evidence on whether these …

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean
against house-price and credit cycles. We rely on a model that features Borrowers and …

We propose an instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a proxy structural vector
autoregressive model (SVAR). The instrument equals the variations in the price of gold …

Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks,
including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating …