Lake water temperature modeling in an era of climate change: Data sources, models, and future prospects

S Piccolroaz, S Zhu, R Ladwig, L Carrea… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential
adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future …

An audacious approach to conservation

RM Ewers - Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2024 - cell.com
New digital and sensor technology provides a huge opportunity to revolutionise
conservation, but we lack a plan for deploying the technologies effectively. I argue that …

Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting

I Morales-Castilla, TJ Davies, G Legault… - Nature Climate …, 2024 - nature.com
The ability to adapt to climate change requires accurate ecological forecasting. Current
forecasts, however, have failed to capture important variability in biological responses …

[HTML][HTML] Process-based forecasts of lake water temperature and dissolved oxygen outperform null models, with variability over time and depth

WM Woelmer, RQ Thomas, F Olsson, BG Steele… - Ecological …, 2024 - Elsevier
Near-term iterative ecological forecasting has great potential for providing new insights into
our ability to predict multiple ecological variables. However, true, out-of-sample probabilistic …

Forecasting seed production in perennial plants: identifying challenges and charting a path forward

V Journé, A Hacket‐Pain, I Oberklammer… - New …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Interannual variability of seed production, known as masting, has far‐reaching ecological
impacts including effects on forest regeneration and the population dynamics of seed …

[HTML][HTML] Using plant functional types to predict the influence of fire on species relative abundance

E Plumanns-Pouton, M Swan, T Penman… - Biological Conservation, 2024 - Elsevier
Fire influences plant survival, reproduction, and establishment. Consequently, plants exhibit
fire-related traits. Grouping species with similar traits into Plant Functional Types (PFTs) …

Thermal Forcing Versus Chilling? Misspecification of Temperature Controls in Spring Phenology Models

X Gao, AD Richardson, MA Friedl… - Global Ecology and …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Background Climate‐change‐induced shifts in the timing of leaf emergence during spring
have been widely documented and have important ecological consequences. However …

Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

M Dietze, EP White, A Abeyta, C Boettiger… - Nature Climate …, 2024 - nature.com
A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the
widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity …

Spatio-temporal transferability of environmentally-dependent population models: insights from the intrinsic predictabilities of Adélie penguin abundance time series

B Şen, C Che-Castaldo, KM Krumhardt, L Landrum… - Ecological …, 2023 - Elsevier
Ecological predictions are necessary for testing whether processes hypothesized to regulate
species population dynamics are generalizable across time and space. In order to …

A community convention for ecological forecasting: Output files and metadata version 1.0

MC Dietze, RQ Thomas, J Peters, C Boettiger… - …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
This paper summarizes the open community conventions developed by the Ecological
Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts …