Sub‐seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep‐learning weather prediction models

JA Weyn, DR Durran, R Caruana… - Journal of Advances …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction
(DLWP) model that recursively predicts six key atmospheric variables with six‐hour time …

[图书][B] Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science

IT Jolliffe, DB Stephenson - 2012 - books.google.com
Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an
indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a …

Evolution of ECMWF sub‐seasonal forecast skill scores

F Vitart - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
Sub‐seasonal forecasts have been routinely produced at ECMWF since 2002 with
reforecasts produced 'on the fly'to calibrate the real‐time sub‐seasonal forecasts. In this …

Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections

AP Weigel, R Knutti, MA Liniger… - Journal of …, 2010 - journals.ametsoc.org
Multimodel combination is a pragmatic approach to estimating model uncertainties and to
making climate projections more reliable. The simplest way of constructing a multimodel is to …

Simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system

F Vitart, F Molteni - … Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2010 - Wiley Online Library
A series of 46‐day ensemble integrations starting on the 15th of each month from 1989 to
2008 has been completed with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts …

The forecast skill horizon

R Buizza, M Leutbecher - Quarterly Journal of the Royal …, 2015 - Wiley Online Library
Numerical weather prediction has seen, in the past 25 years, a shift from a 'deterministic'
approach, based on single numerical integrations, to a probabilistic one, with ensembles of …

Review of onsite temperature and solar forecasting models to enable better building design and operations

B Dong, R Widjaja, W Wu, Z Zhou - Building Simulation, 2021 - Springer
Advanced building controls and energy optimization for new constructions and retrofits rely
on accurate weather data. Traditionally, most studies utilize airport weather information as …

Advancing parsimonious deep learning weather prediction using the healpix mesh

M Karlbauer, N Cresswell‐Clay… - Journal of Advances …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven
atmospheric variables with 3‐hr time resolution for up to 1‐year lead times on a 110‐km …

Skill of subseasonal forecasts in Europe: Effect of bias correction and downscaling using surface observations

S Monhart, C Spirig, J Bhend, K Bogner… - Journal of …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
Subseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium‐range weather forecasts and
seasonal climate predictions. This time horizon is of crucial importance for many planning …

[HTML][HTML] Choices in the verification of S2S forecasts and their implications for climate services

A Manrique-Suñén… - Monthly Weather …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Anderson, J., H. van den Dool, AG Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999:
Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical …