The potential of genomics for infectious disease forecasting

JE Stockdale, P Liu, C Colijn - Nature Microbiology, 2022 - nature.com
Genomic technologies have led to tremendous gains in understanding how pathogens
function, evolve and interact. Pathogen diversity is now measurable at high precision and …

Lessons from Ebola: Improving infectious disease surveillance to inform outbreak management

MEJ Woolhouse, A Rambaut, P Kellam - Science translational medicine, 2015 - science.org
The current Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa has revealed serious shortcomings
in national and international capacity to detect, monitor, and respond to infectious disease …

Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: a tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda

I Andrianakis, IR Vernon, N McCreesh… - PLoS computational …, 2015 - journals.plos.org
Advances in scientific computing have allowed the development of complex models that are
being routinely applied to problems in disease epidemiology, public health and decision …

Approximate Bayesian computation and simulation-based inference for complex stochastic epidemic models

TJ McKinley, I Vernon, I Andrianakis, N McCreesh… - 2018 - projecteuclid.org
Approximate Bayesian Computation and Simulation-Based Inference for Complex Stochastic
Epidemic Models Page 1 Statistical Science 2018, Vol. 33, No. 1, 4–18 https://doi.org/10.1214/17-STS618 …

The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa

KAM Gaythorpe, A Hamlet, L Cibrelus, T Garske… - Elife, 2020 - elifesciences.org
Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa
and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have …

[HTML][HTML] Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges

A Alahmadi, S Belet, A Black, D Cromer, JA Flegg… - Epidemics, 2020 - Elsevier
Modern data and computational resources, coupled with algorithmic and theoretical
advances to exploit these, allow disease dynamic models to be parameterised with …

[HTML][HTML] Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan

A Chatzilena, E van Leeuwen, O Ratmann, M Baguelin… - Epidemics, 2019 - Elsevier
This paper is concerned with the application of recent statistical advances to inference of
infectious disease dynamics. We describe the fitting of a class of epidemic models using …

Approximate Bayesian computation with Kullback-Leibler divergence as data discrepancy

B Jiang - … conference on artificial intelligence and statistics, 2018 - proceedings.mlr.press
Complex simulator-based models usually have intractable likelihood functions, rendering
the likelihood-based inference methods inapplicable. Approximate Bayesian Computation …

How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation

T House, JV Ross, D Sirl - Proceedings of the Royal …, 2013 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Epidemic models have become a routinely used tool to inform policy on infectious disease.
A particular interest at the moment is the use of computationally intensive inference to …

Estimation of the dispersal distances of an aphid-borne virus in a patchy landscape

DRJ Pleydell, S Soubeyrand, S Dallot… - PLoS computational …, 2018 - journals.plos.org
Characterising the spatio-temporal dynamics of pathogens in natura is key to ensuring their
efficient prevention and control. However, it is notoriously difficult to estimate dispersal …