Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …

Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks

L Gulia, S Wiemer - Nature, 2019 - nature.com
Immediately after a large earthquake, the main question asked by the public and decision-
makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to …

Aftershock Forecasting

JL Hardebeck, AL Llenos, AJ Michael… - Annual Review of …, 2024 - annualreviews.org
Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …

B‐Positive: A Robust Estimator of Aftershock Magnitude Distribution in Transiently Incomplete Catalogs

NJ van der Elst - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
The earthquake magnitude‐frequency distribution is characterized by the b‐value, which
describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested …

Revealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence

M Herrmann, E Piegari, W Marzocchi - Nature Communications, 2022 - nature.com
Abstract The Magnitude–Frequency-Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes is typically modeled
with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b …

The effect of declustering on the size distribution of mainshocks

L Mizrahi, S Nandan, S Wiemer - … Society of America, 2021 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and
dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies …

Microseismicity along Xiaojiang Fault Zone (Southeastern Tibetan Plateau) and the characterization of interseismic fault behavior

Y Zhou, H Yue, S Zhou, L Fang, Y Zhou, L Xu, Z Liu… - Tectonophysics, 2022 - Elsevier
Abstract The Xiaojiang Fault (XJF) Zone locates in the southeastern of Tibetan Plateau and
defines the boundary between the South China and Sichuan-Yunnan blocks. Historical …

Physical Mechanism for a Temporal Decrease of the Gutenberg‐Richter b‐Value Prior to a Large Earthquake

R Ito, Y Kaneko - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Observations of seismicity prior to large earthquakes show that the slope of a Gutenberg‐
Richter magnitude‐frequency relation, referred to as ab‐value, sometimes decreases with …

Two foreshock sequences post Gulia and Wiemer (2019)

K Dascher‐Cousineau, T Lay… - … Society of America, 2020 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Recognizing earthquakes as foreshocks in real time would provide a valuable forecasting
capability. In a recent study, proposed a traffic‐light system that relies on abrupt changes in …

The homogenized instrumental seismic catalog (HORUS) of Italy from 1960 to present

B Lolli, D Randazzo, G Vannucci… - … Society of America, 2020 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
We implemented an automatic procedure to update in near‐real time (daily to hourly) a
homogeneous catalog of Italian instrumental seismicity to be used for forecasting …