Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions
L Mizrahi, I Dallo, NJ van der Elst… - Reviews of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible,
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …
earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes …
Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks
Immediately after a large earthquake, the main question asked by the public and decision-
makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to …
makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to …
Aftershock Forecasting
Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …
and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the …
B‐Positive: A Robust Estimator of Aftershock Magnitude Distribution in Transiently Incomplete Catalogs
NJ van der Elst - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
The earthquake magnitude‐frequency distribution is characterized by the b‐value, which
describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested …
describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested …
Revealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence
Abstract The Magnitude–Frequency-Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes is typically modeled
with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b …
with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b …
The effect of declustering on the size distribution of mainshocks
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and
dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies …
dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies …
Microseismicity along Xiaojiang Fault Zone (Southeastern Tibetan Plateau) and the characterization of interseismic fault behavior
Abstract The Xiaojiang Fault (XJF) Zone locates in the southeastern of Tibetan Plateau and
defines the boundary between the South China and Sichuan-Yunnan blocks. Historical …
defines the boundary between the South China and Sichuan-Yunnan blocks. Historical …
Physical Mechanism for a Temporal Decrease of the Gutenberg‐Richter b‐Value Prior to a Large Earthquake
R Ito, Y Kaneko - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Observations of seismicity prior to large earthquakes show that the slope of a Gutenberg‐
Richter magnitude‐frequency relation, referred to as ab‐value, sometimes decreases with …
Richter magnitude‐frequency relation, referred to as ab‐value, sometimes decreases with …
Two foreshock sequences post Gulia and Wiemer (2019)
K Dascher‐Cousineau, T Lay… - … Society of America, 2020 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
Recognizing earthquakes as foreshocks in real time would provide a valuable forecasting
capability. In a recent study, proposed a traffic‐light system that relies on abrupt changes in …
capability. In a recent study, proposed a traffic‐light system that relies on abrupt changes in …
The homogenized instrumental seismic catalog (HORUS) of Italy from 1960 to present
B Lolli, D Randazzo, G Vannucci… - … Society of America, 2020 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
We implemented an automatic procedure to update in near‐real time (daily to hourly) a
homogeneous catalog of Italian instrumental seismicity to be used for forecasting …
homogeneous catalog of Italian instrumental seismicity to be used for forecasting …