We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock
returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of …

We collect data on the size distribution of US businesses for 100 years, and use these data
to estimate the concentration of production (eg, asset share or sales share of top …

Since the beginning of 2018, the United States has undertaken unprecedented tariff
increases, with one goal of these actions being to boost the manufacturing sector. In this …

We find that increases in employer concentration causally reduce wages, using a new
instrument for employer concentration based on changes in large firms' national hiring …

We study the dynamic responses of local economies after natural disasters in the US using
county-level data over the past four decades. We find disasters increase income total and …

Missing value imputation in machine learning is the task of estimating the missing values in
the dataset accurately using available information. In this task, several deep generative …

We uncover evidence that the US–China trade war was consequential for voting outcomes
in the 2018 congressional midterm election. Republican House candidates lost support in …

The large cities in the US are the most expensive places to live. Paradoxically, this cost is
disproportionately paid by workers who could work remotely, and live anywhere. The greater …

Since 1980, economic growth in the US has been fastest in its largest cities. We show that a
group of skill-and information-intensive service industries are responsible for all of this new …

Why have white, less-educated voters left the Democratic Party? We highlight the role of the
1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In event-study analysis, we …