Winter storms are disruptive to society and the economy, and they often cause significant
injuries and deaths. Innovations in winter storm forecasting have occurred across the value …

Many large metropolitan areas are especially susceptible to floods generated by heavy,
short-duration rainfall. The high density of people, buildings and infrastructure in these areas …

Recent research has shown that random forests (RFs) can create skillful probabilistic severe
weather hazard forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble data …

Abstract During the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA's Hazardous Weather
Testbed, two NWS forecasters issued experimental probabilistic forecasts of hail, tornadoes …

A valid time shifting (VTS) method is explored for the GSI-based ensemble variational
(EnVar) system modified to directly assimilate radar reflectivity at convective scales. VTS is a …

This study describes a real-time implementation of valid time shifting (VTS) within the
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation–based ensemble-variational (EnVar) data assimilation …

A series of convection-allowing 36-hour ensemble forecasts during the 2018 Spring season
are used to better understand the impacts of ensemble configuration and blending different …

Flash flooding remains a challenging prediction problem, which is exacerbated by the lack
of a universally accepted definition of the phenomenon. In this article, we extend prior …

This study explores convection-allowing ensemble (CAE) forecasts of a subset of 24 warm-
season (May–August) progressive derechos from 2012 to 2022. The derecho cases were …

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on advances in monitoring and forecasting of
rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and its impact during 2014–18, as presented …