This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the
relationship between domestic (ie, country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and …

The availability of mineral raw materials and their secure and sustainable supply is essential
for the German economy. As a major industrial nation with resource-intensive processing …

We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm
outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation …

We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the
macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty shocks using methods from the news shocks …

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing measures of uncertainty, risk, and
volatility, noting their conceptual distinctions. It summarizes how they are constructed, their …

We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we
motivate the study of uncertainty shocks by documenting the presence of time-variation in …

Uncertainty rises in recessions and falls in booms. But what is the causal relationship? We
construct cross-country panel data on stock market returns to proxy for first-and second …

This paper empirically evaluates the potentially nonlinear nexus between financial
indicators and the distribution of future GDP growth, using a rich set of macroeconomic and …

We model permanent and transitory changes of the predictive density of US GDP growth. A
substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth emerges over the last 30 …

In this paper, we provide direct evidence on the behavior of markups in the retail sector
across space and time. Markups are measured using gross margins. We consider three …