A non-ferrous metal price ensemble prediction system based on innovative combined kernel extreme learning machine and chaos theory

H Guo, J Wang, Z Li, H Lu, L Zhang - Resources Policy, 2022 - Elsevier
Non-ferrous metal futures, as a significant component of the financial market, are
complementary and coordinated with other financial elements, which has been a key area of …

“Watch your tone!”: Forecasting mining industry commodity prices with financial report tone

N Hardy, T Ferreira, MJ Quinteros, NS Magner - Resources Policy, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper presents robust evidence indicating that the tone of financial reports from the US
mining industry firms can predict certain mining commodity returns. We assess this …

Cryptocurrency forecasting: More evidence of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle

N Magner, N Hardy - Mathematics, 2022 - mdpi.com
This paper tests the random walk hypothesis in the cryptocurrency market. Based on the well-
known Meese–Rogoff puzzle, we evaluate whether cryptocurrency returns are predictable or …

Forecasting base metal prices with an international stock index

PM Pincheira, N Hardy, C Henriquez… - Available at SSRN …, 2021 - papers.ssrn.com
In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict
base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such …

Forecasting Commodity Market Synchronization with Commodity Currencies: A Network-Based Approach

NS Magner, N Hardy, J Lavin, T Ferreira - Entropy, 2023 - mdpi.com
This paper shows that some commodity currencies (from Chile, Iceland, Norway, South
Africa, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) predict the synchronization of metals and …

The mean squared prediction error paradox

PP Brown, N Hardy - Journal of Forecasting, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of mean squared prediction error (MSPE)
between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when …