Revealing the statistics of extreme events hidden in short weather forecast data

J Finkel, EP Gerber, DS Abbot, J Weare - AGU Advances, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on
society. While high‐resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events …

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

J Strahan, J Finkel, AR Dinner, J Weare - Journal of computational physics, 2023 - Elsevier
Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic
dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation …

Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra for neural network-based spectral estimation and rare-event prediction

J Strahan, SC Guo, C Lorpaiboon, AR Dinner… - The Journal of …, 2023 - pubs.aip.org
Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many
degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are …

[HTML][HTML] Weighted ensemble: Recent mathematical developments

D Aristoff, J Copperman, G Simpson… - The Journal of …, 2023 - pubs.aip.org
Weighted ensemble (WE) is an enhanced sampling method based on periodically
replicating and pruning trajectories generated in parallel. WE has grown increasingly …

Using explainable AI and transfer learning to understand and predict the maintenance of Atlantic blocking with limited observational data

H Zhang, J Finkel, DS Abbot… - Journal of …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long‐lasting blocking
events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however …

[HTML][HTML] Arbitrarily accurate, nonparametric coarse graining with Markov renewal processes and the Mori–Zwanzig formulation

D Aristoff, M Johnson, D Perez - AIP Advances, 2023 - pubs.aip.org
Stochastic dynamics, such as molecular dynamics, are important in many scientific
applications. However, summarizing and analyzing the results of such simulations is often …

From high-dimensional committors to reactive insights

NE Strand, SB Nicholson, H Vroylandt… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
Transition path theory (TPT) offers a powerful formalism for extracting the rate and
mechanism of rare dynamical transitions between metastable states. Most applications of …

The surprising efficiency of temporal difference learning for rare event prediction

X Cheng, J Weare - arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.17638, 2024 - arxiv.org
We quantify the efficiency of temporal difference (TD) learning over the direct, or Monte
Carlo (MC), estimator for policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, with an emphasis on …

Short Trajectory Methods for Rare Event Analysis and Sampling

JC Strahan - 2024 - knowledge.uchicago.edu
A fundamental problem in computer simulation of systems of biophysical interest is the
separation of timescales. This refers to the fact that stable integration of the equations that …

Data-Driven Methods for Compact Modeling of Stochastic Processes

MS Johnson - 2024 - search.proquest.com
Stochastic dynamics are prevalent throughout many scientific disciplines where finding
useful compact models is an ongoing pursuit. However, the simulations involved are often …