Revealing the statistics of extreme events hidden in short weather forecast data
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on
society. While high‐resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events …
society. While high‐resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events …
Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data
Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic
dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation …
dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation …
Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra for neural network-based spectral estimation and rare-event prediction
Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many
degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are …
degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are …
[HTML][HTML] Weighted ensemble: Recent mathematical developments
D Aristoff, J Copperman, G Simpson… - The Journal of …, 2023 - pubs.aip.org
Weighted ensemble (WE) is an enhanced sampling method based on periodically
replicating and pruning trajectories generated in parallel. WE has grown increasingly …
replicating and pruning trajectories generated in parallel. WE has grown increasingly …
Using explainable AI and transfer learning to understand and predict the maintenance of Atlantic blocking with limited observational data
Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long‐lasting blocking
events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however …
events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however …
[HTML][HTML] Arbitrarily accurate, nonparametric coarse graining with Markov renewal processes and the Mori–Zwanzig formulation
D Aristoff, M Johnson, D Perez - AIP Advances, 2023 - pubs.aip.org
Stochastic dynamics, such as molecular dynamics, are important in many scientific
applications. However, summarizing and analyzing the results of such simulations is often …
applications. However, summarizing and analyzing the results of such simulations is often …
From high-dimensional committors to reactive insights
Transition path theory (TPT) offers a powerful formalism for extracting the rate and
mechanism of rare dynamical transitions between metastable states. Most applications of …
mechanism of rare dynamical transitions between metastable states. Most applications of …
The surprising efficiency of temporal difference learning for rare event prediction
X Cheng, J Weare - arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.17638, 2024 - arxiv.org
We quantify the efficiency of temporal difference (TD) learning over the direct, or Monte
Carlo (MC), estimator for policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, with an emphasis on …
Carlo (MC), estimator for policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, with an emphasis on …
Short Trajectory Methods for Rare Event Analysis and Sampling
JC Strahan - 2024 - knowledge.uchicago.edu
A fundamental problem in computer simulation of systems of biophysical interest is the
separation of timescales. This refers to the fact that stable integration of the equations that …
separation of timescales. This refers to the fact that stable integration of the equations that …
Data-Driven Methods for Compact Modeling of Stochastic Processes
MS Johnson - 2024 - search.proquest.com
Stochastic dynamics are prevalent throughout many scientific disciplines where finding
useful compact models is an ongoing pursuit. However, the simulations involved are often …
useful compact models is an ongoing pursuit. However, the simulations involved are often …